As I looked at the NFL spreads aligned with this week’s schedule, I salivated because several of the games look juicy to me. From past experience, however, I know this is not necessarily a good sign. As they say, if it looks too good to be true, it probably is. Always be suspicious of a spread that seems like it must be a mistake. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve looked at a game that seemed like an easy call only to be disappointed soon after the game starts. Sometimes, you simply overlook something. Other times, an early pick-6 can completely change the tenor of a game. Last week’s Rams-Titans game is a great example. Playing at home, LA was a solid favorite going into a game minus Derrick Henry. But a couple of big defensive plays changed everything.
So here’s hoping we don’t fall into any traps with this week’s picks:
New Orleans @ Tennessee:
Line: Titans -2.5
Grab this line while you can. With Alvin Kamara ruled out, it’s quite likely to fluctuate to -3 or even -4. I find it hard to believe it’s not already that high with the Titans playing at home and coming off a big win against the Rams. New Orleans will have trouble scoring. Lay the points, and count on the Titans to ride their defense again.
Minnesota @ LA Chargers:
Line: Chargers -3
Here is another line that perplexes me. Giving three points at home is considered the equivalent of a pick ’em game on a neutral field, and Minnesota is not the better team. As a matter of fact, per the recent assessment of an avid Vikings fan that I came across recently, they are a team in disarray, and I put a lot of stock in the opinions of those who follow a particular team closely on a weekly basis. Take the Bolts.
NFL 2-Team Teaser Play of the Week
I like the Lions (+9) coming off the bye and a blowout loss to Philadelphia. Tease the 9-point spread through three key numbers (10, 13, and 14) to +15. The Steelers mediocre offense isn’t going to blow anyone out—even the lowly Lions. For the second part of the play, take Cleveland (+2.5 where you can get it) against my Pats and bump the spread to a two-score margin. Both teams like to run the ball and the Browns are a strong team, so I don’t see a Mac Jones-led offense steamrolling them.
Last week: 2-1
By: Peter Mooney CruelFan.com