The only thing I got right in last week’s picks piece was reminding folks, “If it looks too good to be true, it probably is.” Starting with a bad beat (the Titans winning, but allowing a comeback and failing to cover the spread by a half point), I lost all three of my so-called “best bets.”
I blame the NFL for the proliferation of upsets and the exceedingly difficult task of picking games. Intent on maintaining the interest of as many fanbases as possible for as long as possible, Roger Goodell and his cronies have created the ultimate league of parity. Is there really any dominant team in the NFL this year? Not in my view. It’s easy to forget that New England, the flavor of the week, lost to the lowly Dolphins in Week 1. Meanwhile, Atlanta, a really bad team, is still in the playoff hunt.
Now that I’m done with my rant, let’s put last week into the rearview mirror. To paraphrase a famous coach, it’s on to Week 11:
Detriot @ Cleveland:
Line: Browns -12
I tend to avoid big spreads, but after last week’s performance, I might as well change things up. This spread seems to be heavily influenced (meaning, deflated) by last week’s performance of both teams. The Browns got throttled by a Patriots D that is coming into form, while the Lions managed not to lose against a backup QB. Word is, Jared Goff is out, and some guy named Tim Boyle, who starred at Eastern Kentucky, is in. Even Boyle’s stats at EK are pretty mediocre. If he starts, lay the points and take the Brownies. If not, I still like the favorites to cover, but consider staying away.
Dallas @ Kansas City:
Line: Chiefs -2.5
In a battle of teams with two elite quarterbacks, I’ll take the edge of having a more complete team over home field advantage. The Chiefs have been bad against the spread this season (0-5 in their last 5 at home), and I predict that trend to continue. Take the points. To optimize your winnings, you might even want to consider betting on the money line and picking Dallas to win outright.
2-Team NFL Teaser Play
Week 11 offers several options for this play. Even with Jacksonville at home, how are the 49ers only 6 and a half point favorites after beating up on the Rams? At risk of this spread being “too good to be true,” tease the spread down to a half point and San Fran only has to win.
For the second half of the teaser, you can bump the spread in the Chargers-Steelers contest and make it a pick ’em game. Justin Herbert has been inconsistent this season – call it a sophomore slump – but he should be able to get it done at home against Big Ben, who’s short on prep thanks to Covid. So your teaser play is SF (-.5) and LAC (even).Two other teams to consider teasing are Baltimore and Buffalo.
Last week: 0-3
By: Peter Mooney CruelFan.com